Ipsos Kenya has released a new survey indicating that proposed minimum-fare regulations could reduce demand for ride-hailing services and put pressure on drivers’ overall earnings, despite the possibility of higher pay per trip. The research, published in Nairobi on September 22, 2026, assessed the views of ride-hailing passengers and drivers on how fare increases could affect usage, affordability and livelihoods.
According to the survey, 57% of surveyed drivers said they expect higher fares to result in fewer trip requests. Ipsos Kenya reported that ride-hailing income is central to many drivers’ livelihoods: 65% said ride-hailing accounts for 75% or more of their monthly income, while 84% reported driving seven or more hours a day.
On the passenger side, Ipsos Kenya found that 64% of surveyed riders said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing if fares increased. The bulk of that response reflected reduced usage rather than full churn: 54% said they would use ride-hailing less frequently, while 10% said they would stop altogether. The survey also indicated that ride-hailing remains important for mobility among respondents, with 52% describing it as “very important or essential,” and 88% attaching at least some importance to the service.
The research suggests fare increases could shift commuter behaviour beyond app-based mobility. Among surveyed passengers who said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing following a fare increase, 76% said they would turn to public transport, while 21% said they would make fewer trips altogether, according to Ipsos Kenya.
For drivers, Ipsos Kenya said demand expectations are closely tied to income security. Among drivers who anticipate fewer trip requests, 65% said this would reduce their overall monthly ride-hailing earnings. The survey also highlighted a gap between expectations of higher earnings per trip and overall take-home income: while 34% of drivers identified higher pay per trip as a potential outcome of higher fares, only 17% expected their overall earnings to increase.
Income diversification may be limited for many drivers. Ipsos Kenya reported that 58% of surveyed drivers said finding another source of income would be difficult if their ride-hailing earnings dropped significantly.
Passenger decision-making, meanwhile, extends beyond price. Ipsos Kenya found safety was the leading consideration when choosing a ride-hailing service, cited by 49% of surveyed passengers among their top two factors. Affordability and reliability followed at 41% each, while convenience was cited by 40%.
Sentiment around higher minimum fares leaned negative among riders. Ipsos Kenya said 55% of surveyed passengers perceived the potential impact negatively, compared with 24% who viewed it positively. The most frequently cited concerns were reduced affordability (34%) and reduced access to transport (21%), according to the research.
“The research highlights the relationship between fares, passenger demand and driver earnings within the ride-hailing market. Surveyed passengers, who had booked a trip through a ride-hailing platform between June and August 2026, reported that fare changes may influence how frequently they use these services, while surveyed drivers indicated that changes in demand may affect their earnings,” said Soyinka Witness, Director, Ipsos Kenya.
In Kenya’s transport market, the findings add data to an ongoing policy debate over how to balance consumer affordability, driver welfare and the sustainability of app-based mobility platforms. Ipsos Kenya cautioned that the results reflect reported expectations and perceptions and “should not be interpreted as forecasts of actual future market behavior.”
As regulators and industry stakeholders continue consultations on minimum-fare proposals, the survey indicates that any upward shift in pricing could influence both ridership volumes and driver incomes, with potential knock-on effects for urban mobility patterns, including higher reliance on public transport.