Ipsos Kenya has released survey findings in Nairobi indicating proposed minimum-fare regulations could reduce ride-hailing demand in Kenya and pressure driver earnings despite higher per-trip fares.

The research dated 22 Sep 2026 surveyed ride-hailing passengers and drivers about how higher fares might affect usage, affordability and livelihoods.

The findings matter for Kenya because ride-hailing supports mobility in Nairobi and other major towns and provides income for thousands of app-based drivers.

“The research highlights the relationship between fares, passenger demand and driver earnings within the ride-hailing market,” said Soyinka Witness, Director, Ipsos Kenya.

According to Ipsos Kenya, 64 per cent of surveyed passengers said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing services if fares rose.

Within that group, 54 per cent said they would use ride-hailing less frequently.

Another 10 per cent said they would stop using it altogether.

Among passengers anticipating reduced use or stopping altogether, 76 per cent said they would shift to public transport.

Ipsos Kenya said 21 per cent of that group would make fewer trips altogether.

The survey comes as Kenya debates ride-hailing regulation including proposals to set minimum fares.

Ipsos Kenya said ride-hailing remains important to surveyed passengers despite their sensitivity to prices.

The firm said 52 per cent described ride-hailing as “very important or essential” for getting around.

It said 88 per cent attached at least some importance to the service.

Ipsos Kenya said the findings suggest drivers see passenger demand as the main determinant of earnings.

The firm said 65 per cent of surveyed drivers derive at least 75 per cent of their monthly income from ride-hailing.

It said 84 per cent drive seven or more hours daily.

When asked about higher fares, 57 per cent of surveyed drivers said they expect fewer trip requests.

Among those anticipating fewer requests, 65 per cent believe this would reduce their monthly ride-hailing earnings.

Ipsos Kenya said 34 per cent identified higher earnings per trip as a potential impact of higher fares.

Only 17 per cent expect their overall earnings to increase.

The findings suggest higher per-trip compensation may not translate into higher monthly income.

Ipsos Kenya said 58 per cent would find another income source difficult to secure if ride-hailing earnings dropped significantly.

For passengers, Ipsos Kenya said price is not the only factor in choosing a ride-hailing service.

Safety led the considerations as 49 per cent included it among their top two factors.

Affordability and reliability each drew 41 per cent compared with 40 per cent for convenience.

Ipsos Kenya said 55 per cent of surveyed passengers viewed the potential impact of higher minimum fares negatively.

It said 24 per cent viewed the potential impact positively.

The most cited concerns were reduced affordability at 34 per cent and reduced transport access at 21 per cent.

Witness said surveyed passengers had booked a trip through a ride-hailing platform between June and August 2026.

He said passengers indicated fare changes may influence usage frequency while drivers indicated demand changes may affect earnings.

For policymakers and operators, the findings suggest minimum-fare rules could change rider behaviour and driver take-home pay.

Demand could shift to public transport as ride-hailing trip volumes decline.

Further debate is likely as regulators consider rider affordability alongside stable driver earnings.

Ipsos Kenya said the results reflect expectations and perceptions rather than predictions of future market outcomes.

Ipsos Kenya has released research in Nairobi indicating that proposed minimum-fare regulations could reduce ride-hailing demand and put pressure on drivers’ overall earnings.

The research published on 22 Sep 2026 assessed passenger and driver views on how fare increases could affect usage, affordability and livelihoods.

The findings matter to Kenya’s transport market because they address the balance between consumer affordability, driver welfare and the sustainability of app-based mobility platforms.

“The research highlights the relationship between fares, passenger demand and driver earnings within the ride-hailing market.” Soyinka Witness said.

Witness is Director at Ipsos Kenya.

According to the survey, 57 per cent of drivers said they expected higher fares to result in fewer trip requests.

Ipsos Kenya said 65 per cent of drivers earned 75 per cent or more of their monthly income from ride-hailing.

The survey found that 84 per cent of drivers worked seven or more hours a day.

Ipsos Kenya said 64 per cent of surveyed riders would reduce or stop using ride-hailing if fares increased.

The breakdown showed 54 per cent would use ride-hailing less frequently and 10 per cent would stop altogether.

Among respondents, 52 per cent described ride-hailing as “very important or essential,” according to the survey.

Ipsos Kenya said 88 per cent attached at least some importance to the service.

Among passengers expecting to reduce or stop usage, 76 per cent said they would turn to public transport.

Another 21 per cent of that group said they would make fewer trips altogether.

Among drivers anticipating fewer requests, 65 per cent said this would reduce their overall monthly ride-hailing earnings.

The survey found 34 per cent identified higher pay per trip as a potential outcome of increased fares.

However, only 17 per cent expected their overall earnings to increase.

Ipsos Kenya said 58 per cent of drivers would find another income source difficult to secure if ride-hailing earnings dropped significantly.

Safety led passenger considerations when choosing a ride-hailing service, appearing among the top two factors for 49 per cent of respondents.

Affordability and reliability followed at 41 per cent each, according to Ipsos Kenya.

Convenience featured among the top two factors for 40 per cent of passengers.

Ipsos Kenya said 55 per cent perceived higher minimum fares negatively compared with 24 per cent who viewed them positively.

The most frequently cited concerns were reduced affordability at 34 per cent and reduced access to transport at 21 per cent.

Witness described respondents as passengers “who had booked a trip through a ride-hailing platform between June and August 2026”.

Witness said passengers “reported that fare changes may influence how frequently they use these services”.

Witness said “surveyed drivers indicated that changes in demand may affect their earnings”.

Ipsos Kenya said the results reflect reported expectations and perceptions.

The company said the findings “should not be interpreted as forecasts of actual future market behavior.”

The research suggests higher prices could affect ridership and driver incomes as passengers shift towards public transport.

Regulators and industry stakeholders continue consultations on minimum-fare proposals.

African Mining Week 2026 will be held in Cape Town, South Africa, on October 14–16, bringing together policymakers, industry leaders and investors to assess how recent mining law reforms across Africa are influencing investment decisions and downstream processing plans, according to a statement distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power on March 11, 2026.

The conference comes as several mineral-producing and frontier markets revise mining codes, introduce new bills and adjust licensing rules in an effort to attract capital, diversify mineral output and capture more value through beneficiation. Energy Capital & Power said modernised legal and regulatory frameworks are aimed at providing clearer rules and improving transparency, factors that can affect financing, exploration activity and project development timelines.

In Liberia, the government is preparing to introduce a new Mining Code “within the next three months” and plans to create a National Mining Company to increase state participation in major projects, Energy Capital & Power said. The publication reported that nearly 80% of Liberia remains geologically unexplored.

“Liberia’s geology is exceptionally rich,” said Matenokay Tingban, Minister of Mines and Energy, in an interview with Energy Capital & Power in January. “We are seeking geomapping and exploration partners. Access to geoscientific data will allow us to negotiate stronger investment deals and develop downstream infrastructure.”

Energy Capital & Power added that iron ore currently dominates Liberia’s output, with the country “targeting 30 million tons per year by 2026,” while the planned framework is expected to support diversification into other resources and encourage partnerships for exploration and downstream processing.

Namibia is finalising a new Minerals Bill to replace its 2002 legislation, with reforms intended to support local beneficiation, broader participation and investment competitiveness, the statement said. Isabella Chirchir, Mining Commissioner at Namibia’s Ministry of Industry and Mines, said the reforms aim “to attract capital to diversify production beyond diamonds and uranium toward strategic metals such as lithium and rare earths,” according to Energy Capital & Power.

In Central Africa, the Republic of Congo approved a draft mining code in November 2025 that introduces competitive bidding, formal permitting for small-scale miners and provisions to support in-country processing, Energy Capital & Power said. The measures are intended to improve transparency and strengthen domestic value chains for both traditional and strategic minerals.

Beyond these markets, Energy Capital & Power said Ivory Coast is revising its mining code to cover a broader range of minerals—naming chromium, coltan, lithium, copper, cobalt and iron ore—alongside its “existing base of 19 operating mines.” Somalia is also overhauling mining regulations to open up frontier resources including uranium, lithium, cobalt, gold and diamonds, it added.

Energy Capital & Power cited recent policy changes in Mali and Burkina Faso as examples of how regulatory shifts can coincide with production growth and new project pipelines. It said Mali introduced a new Mining Code in 2023 and “continues as Africa’s second-largest gold producer” while advancing lithium projects and a gold refinery with international partners Barrick and B2Gold. It also said Burkina Faso adopted a revised code in 2024 and increased gold production from “roughly 57–60 tons to 94 tons in 2025.”

For Kenya and East Africa, the push for clearer mining rules and licensing procedures in multiple African jurisdictions may intensify competition for exploration and development capital, particularly for minerals linked to battery supply chains such as lithium and rare earths. Regulatory changes in neighbouring and comparable markets can also influence investor expectations around permitting timelines, state participation and beneficiation requirements—factors that typically shape project economics and financing structures.

African Mining Week 2026 is expected to focus on how these legislative changes translate into project execution—from early-stage exploration to processing and refining—at a time when governments are seeking to expand local value addition and improve revenues from mineral extraction.