Ipsos Kenya has released research in Nairobi indicating that proposed minimum-fare regulations could reduce ride-hailing demand and put pressure on drivers’ overall earnings.
The research published on 22 Sep 2026 assessed passenger and driver views on how fare increases could affect usage, affordability and livelihoods.
The findings matter to Kenya’s transport market because they address the balance between consumer affordability, driver welfare and the sustainability of app-based mobility platforms.
“The research highlights the relationship between fares, passenger demand and driver earnings within the ride-hailing market.” Soyinka Witness said.
Witness is Director at Ipsos Kenya.
According to the survey, 57 per cent of drivers said they expected higher fares to result in fewer trip requests.
Ipsos Kenya said 65 per cent of drivers earned 75 per cent or more of their monthly income from ride-hailing.
The survey found that 84 per cent of drivers worked seven or more hours a day.
Ipsos Kenya said 64 per cent of surveyed riders would reduce or stop using ride-hailing if fares increased.
The breakdown showed 54 per cent would use ride-hailing less frequently and 10 per cent would stop altogether.
Among respondents, 52 per cent described ride-hailing as “very important or essential,” according to the survey.
Ipsos Kenya said 88 per cent attached at least some importance to the service.
Among passengers expecting to reduce or stop usage, 76 per cent said they would turn to public transport.
Another 21 per cent of that group said they would make fewer trips altogether.
Among drivers anticipating fewer requests, 65 per cent said this would reduce their overall monthly ride-hailing earnings.
The survey found 34 per cent identified higher pay per trip as a potential outcome of increased fares.
However, only 17 per cent expected their overall earnings to increase.
Ipsos Kenya said 58 per cent of drivers would find another income source difficult to secure if ride-hailing earnings dropped significantly.
Safety led passenger considerations when choosing a ride-hailing service, appearing among the top two factors for 49 per cent of respondents.
Affordability and reliability followed at 41 per cent each, according to Ipsos Kenya.
Convenience featured among the top two factors for 40 per cent of passengers.
Ipsos Kenya said 55 per cent perceived higher minimum fares negatively compared with 24 per cent who viewed them positively.
The most frequently cited concerns were reduced affordability at 34 per cent and reduced access to transport at 21 per cent.
Witness described respondents as passengers “who had booked a trip through a ride-hailing platform between June and August 2026”.
Witness said passengers “reported that fare changes may influence how frequently they use these services”.
Witness said “surveyed drivers indicated that changes in demand may affect their earnings”.
Ipsos Kenya said the results reflect reported expectations and perceptions.
The company said the findings “should not be interpreted as forecasts of actual future market behavior.”
The research suggests higher prices could affect ridership and driver incomes as passengers shift towards public transport.
Regulators and industry stakeholders continue consultations on minimum-fare proposals.