Ipsos Kenya has released new survey findings indicating that proposed minimum-fare regulations could reduce demand for ride-hailing services in Kenya and put pressure on driver earnings, even if per-trip fares increase. The research, dated 22 September 2026 in Nairobi, surveyed ride-hailing passengers and drivers on how higher fares might affect usage, affordability and livelihoods.

According to Ipsos Kenya, 64% of surveyed passengers said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing services if fares rose. Within that group, 54% said they would use ride-hailing less frequently, while 10% said they would stop using it altogether.

The study also points to potential spillover effects on the wider urban transport market. Among respondents who said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing after a fare increase, 76% said they would shift to public transport, while 21% said they would make fewer trips altogether, Ipsos Kenya reported.

The survey comes as Kenya continues to debate how ride-hailing should be regulated, including proposals that could set minimum fares. Any changes to fare structures matter for a sector that has become a key part of mobility in Nairobi and other major towns, while also serving as a major income stream for thousands of drivers operating on app-based platforms.

Ipsos Kenya said ride-hailing remains important to those surveyed despite price sensitivity. The firm reported that 52% of surveyed passengers described ride-hailing as “very important or essential” for getting around, and 88% attached at least some importance to the service.

On the supply side, the survey suggests drivers see passenger demand as the main determinant of earnings. Ipsos Kenya reported that 65% of surveyed drivers said that 75% or more of their monthly income comes from ride-hailing, and 84% said they drive seven or more hours a day.

When asked about the impact of higher fares, 57% of surveyed drivers said they expect fewer trip requests. Among drivers who anticipate fewer requests, 65% believe this would reduce their monthly ride-hailing earnings, according to Ipsos Kenya.

The findings also suggest a gap between expectations of improved per-trip compensation and overall income. Ipsos Kenya reported that while 34% of surveyed drivers identified higher earnings per trip as a potential impact of higher fares, only 17% expect their overall earnings to increase.

Drivers also indicated limited ability to replace lost income. Ipsos Kenya found that 58% of surveyed drivers said finding another source of income would be difficult if ride-hailing earnings dropped significantly.

For passengers, Ipsos Kenya said price is not the only deciding factor in choosing a ride-hailing service. Safety was the leading consideration, cited by 49% of surveyed passengers among their top two factors, while affordability and reliability were each cited by 41%, and convenience by 40%.

The firm also measured consumer sentiment toward proposed higher minimum fares. Ipsos Kenya reported that 55% of surveyed passengers perceived the potential impact negatively, compared with 24% who perceived it positively. The most cited concerns were reduced affordability (34%) and reduced access to transport (21%).

“The research highlights the relationship between fares, passenger demand and driver earnings within the ride-hailing market. Surveyed passengers, who had booked a trip through a ride-hailing platform between June and August 2026, reported that fare changes may influence how frequently they use these services, while surveyed drivers indicated that changes in demand may affect their earnings,” said Soyinka Witness, Director, Ipsos Kenya.

Ipsos Kenya cautioned that the results reflect expectations and perceptions rather than predictions of future market outcomes. For policymakers and operators, the findings add to the evidence that minimum-fare rules could reshape both rider behaviour and driver take-home pay, potentially shifting demand to public transport and reducing trip volumes. Further debate is likely as regulators consider how to balance affordability for riders with earnings stability for drivers.

Ipsos Kenya has released a new survey indicating that proposed minimum-fare regulations could reduce demand for ride-hailing services and put pressure on drivers’ overall earnings, despite the possibility of higher pay per trip. The research, published in Nairobi on September 22, 2026, assessed the views of ride-hailing passengers and drivers on how fare increases could affect usage, affordability and livelihoods.

According to the survey, 57% of surveyed drivers said they expect higher fares to result in fewer trip requests. Ipsos Kenya reported that ride-hailing income is central to many drivers’ livelihoods: 65% said ride-hailing accounts for 75% or more of their monthly income, while 84% reported driving seven or more hours a day.

On the passenger side, Ipsos Kenya found that 64% of surveyed riders said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing if fares increased. The bulk of that response reflected reduced usage rather than full churn: 54% said they would use ride-hailing less frequently, while 10% said they would stop altogether. The survey also indicated that ride-hailing remains important for mobility among respondents, with 52% describing it as “very important or essential,” and 88% attaching at least some importance to the service.

The research suggests fare increases could shift commuter behaviour beyond app-based mobility. Among surveyed passengers who said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing following a fare increase, 76% said they would turn to public transport, while 21% said they would make fewer trips altogether, according to Ipsos Kenya.

For drivers, Ipsos Kenya said demand expectations are closely tied to income security. Among drivers who anticipate fewer trip requests, 65% said this would reduce their overall monthly ride-hailing earnings. The survey also highlighted a gap between expectations of higher earnings per trip and overall take-home income: while 34% of drivers identified higher pay per trip as a potential outcome of higher fares, only 17% expected their overall earnings to increase.

Income diversification may be limited for many drivers. Ipsos Kenya reported that 58% of surveyed drivers said finding another source of income would be difficult if their ride-hailing earnings dropped significantly.

Passenger decision-making, meanwhile, extends beyond price. Ipsos Kenya found safety was the leading consideration when choosing a ride-hailing service, cited by 49% of surveyed passengers among their top two factors. Affordability and reliability followed at 41% each, while convenience was cited by 40%.

Sentiment around higher minimum fares leaned negative among riders. Ipsos Kenya said 55% of surveyed passengers perceived the potential impact negatively, compared with 24% who viewed it positively. The most frequently cited concerns were reduced affordability (34%) and reduced access to transport (21%), according to the research.

“The research highlights the relationship between fares, passenger demand and driver earnings within the ride-hailing market. Surveyed passengers, who had booked a trip through a ride-hailing platform between June and August 2026, reported that fare changes may influence how frequently they use these services, while surveyed drivers indicated that changes in demand may affect their earnings,” said Soyinka Witness, Director, Ipsos Kenya.

In Kenya’s transport market, the findings add data to an ongoing policy debate over how to balance consumer affordability, driver welfare and the sustainability of app-based mobility platforms. Ipsos Kenya cautioned that the results reflect reported expectations and perceptions and “should not be interpreted as forecasts of actual future market behavior.”

As regulators and industry stakeholders continue consultations on minimum-fare proposals, the survey indicates that any upward shift in pricing could influence both ridership volumes and driver incomes, with potential knock-on effects for urban mobility patterns, including higher reliance on public transport.